MEETINGS How does the crisis in Ukraine affect my investments in the stock market and funds?
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Today at 10 a.m., he resolved his doubts...
Investment Director of Metagestion
What scenarios do you contemplate that may occur in the market due to the crisis in Ukraine? What investment strategies can bring me greater benefits? In which funds do you see better performance? Alberto Roldán, director of investments at Metagestion, responded to his doubts on January 26, 2022.
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- Fer1. Hello Alberto. A very specific question about a company that you have surely analyzed: What is the great punishment for Grifols' listing? Do you consider it justified? Do you still consider it an interesting long-term investment option? Oops, it was three questions at the end. But thank you very much for answering. All the best.
- 10:03 Hello, Yes, it is shocking that a quality company like GRF is penalized so much. That's a 50% penalty from its all-time high almost two years ago. I attribute it to the fact that the market has rotated where it has rotated, leaving certain stories forgotten. In addition, and rightly so, there is a penalty for the communication policy that the company has followed, such as when last year it chose to publish a trading statement instead of a detailed presentation of its results. Sometimes that is interpreted as if he wanted to cover something. In my opinion, there is a part of that penalty justified by the loss of margins during the pandemic, but I think it is already in the price. We think that at 17x estimated profits for this year with free cash that could be recovering (let's not forget some purchases that have been criticized), and with ROE that should return to double digits, it is an attractive company. We believe in it and that is why it is present in our Metavalor fund. All the best
- GALLERY432. How can the crisis between UKRAINE and RUSSIA affect the markets of SPAIN?
- 10:06 Little or nothing. I am very skeptical about the influence that this (potential) conflict has on the markets and the economic recovery. You would have to surprise us with unexpected violence to think that it could derail growth in Europe. In the rest of the world I take it for granted that it is not even perceived as a risk factor. It is true that Monday was listed as a potential element of risk, but the uptick in volatility is far from there. To contribute something, in any case it could temporarily put pressure on energy prices, but it is something that remains to be seen. Really, I don't think it's a major issue to consider neither in economic expectations nor in financial terms.
- manu3. I have Caixabank, Enagas and Mapfre, as a way of obtaining a supplement to my pension. Do you see it right? and to change, what values do you recommend. Very grateful in advance for your attention.
- 10:13 Hello, Well, they are three very conservative positions and also very correlated. It is a bet on the Spanish market, focused on perhaps not the best options. We think there is room to improve the portfolio. Enagas is a bond with credit and regulatory risk. It is a collection of long-term coupons, with little volatility but which does not stop tracking the Spanish debt. In the banks there is a wide discussion about interest rates, the evolution of margins, commissions, etc. which is as open as it is debatable. Our view differs from the consensus in the sense that we do not see the benefits that are given to banks. In addition, Caixabank does not seem to us to be an entity with a good retail service and the integration of Bankia seems to have generated enormous dissatisfaction among customers, which could lead to surprises in coming quarters. Mapfre is a conservative option but such low rates kill the insurance business. Management quality in the worst possible context.
- MONTE CRISTO4. Good morning Alberto, what scenarios do you envisage that may occur in the market due to the crisis in Ukraine? Given the punishment for the steel companies, do you think it would be interesting to enter Acerinox, Aperam or Arcerlor? Do you think they can go even lower and there will be better entry opportunities? Thanks in advance. All the best.
- 10:24 Good morning, We already mentioned it before, at Metagestion we do not think that the conflict in Ukraine is going to cause a radical turnaround in growth or in the markets. This in no way means that we downplay it, but we relativize it. Having said that, stock markets are now behaving erratically. And very unpredictable. We do not play short terms unless they help us to find ideas that fit into our management model, which is centered on one idea: value. Regarding the two companies that you propose. We like Acerinox more because we give more value precisely to stainless steel and because of the weight that the US has, where we believe that growth will remain solid at least this year and next and there is a more credible investment and infrastructure program than the European one. It is at 5x benefits, very cheap.
- MONTE CRISTO5. Good morning Alberto, how do you see the evolution of the price of oil in the following months? What do you think Repsol? Would it enter the value? Thanks in advance. All the best.
- 10:28 Good morning, I can't give you an answer because a few months for us is very short term, and our vision is oriented to the very long term. We like Repsol because we think that it will have two years of very strong cash generation ahead of it, which will be increasingly benefited by the weight of its renewables area. Without going crazy, we believe that it could be making between €1.5 and €2.0bn of FCF, which is a double-digit FCF yield. Our Metavalor fund has made a firm commitment to the company and we feel very comfortable with this idea.
- Zamarron 6. What is happening with the funds? Will they recover? they are going down a lot
- 10:33Hello, I suppose you are referring to the Metagestion funds. We have had an unfortunate 2021 in which, due to a series of circumstances, we have had a performance that does not respond in any way to the spirit of the house or to the historical management of the funds. That said, that fatal accident has been rectified and we have made a reset with a shift towards a model aimed at seeking value and managing ideas while staying true to our roots. And we have been doing it from minute one, as can be seen in the performance from the beginning of this 2022. The international and national strategies are aimed at companies where we apply very strict criteria of analysis, selection based on quality and value, and above all, being very aware that we have to intelligently manage the money of our participants. We are 100% convinced that a success story is opening for the house and we invite you to be part of it.
- Angel7. Good Alberto, 3 values and 3 funds, for the long term and to be able to sleep peacefully? Greetings.
- 10:46 Good morning, I can't make any recommendations, but I can tell you that our funds meet the characteristics that we think an investor should look for. Understanding that there are criteria of liquidity, risk and diversification that must be accommodated, our management is oriented to the search for value with an investment process anchored in analysis that we do not negotiate or raffle. We believe that our funds have an enormous capacity to generate value and, unlike other managers that seek to establish objectives, we look at the investments that we have today to place them in the financial and economic context. We are very practical in that sense. Of course, I am very calm with my investment in our funds and I sleep more than peacefully.
- Magda Jimenez8. Good morning. What funds are more recommended if I buy at this time and how did you diversify 30,000 euros? Just one or better two? Contributing what monthly amounts? Thank you
- 10:51 Good morning, If you ask the manager, it is normal that without giving an explicit recommendation, he will tell you about the benefits of the fund that he manages. And that is what I am trying to convey in this meeting, confidence in a management style that does not promise returns but a process aimed at aligning our participants with a common goal: to generate sufficient returns. Personally, I believe that the Metavalor Internacional fund is doing well because you have taken the necessary steps to rebuild the portfolio and follow value principles. Do not forget to diversify your portfolio, understand the risk you want to take is more than capital. It is vital. Good advice is key, so we invite you to contact us so we can help you. Thank you
- alpesdemadrid9. Good morning, Mr. Roldan, for conservative-moderate investors, how do you see fixed income, which type do you think is more appropriate in this scenario so as not to lose money? and they are the absolute return funds appropriate to the situation, which seems to them to be a good option. I have some that these days follow the same path as RV and RF. What do you propose for investors fleeing from equities? Thanks and good day.
- 10:55 Good morning, Fixed income has a certainly complicated scenario ahead of it. Managing the duration of the portfolio and the risk it assumes (depending on the asset) are key to this. We think that with more than evident duration risk and with somewhat less visibility in growth and monetary policy, this factor needs to be closely controlled. Our idea will always be to diversify the portfolio, invest time in a good selection with help that allows us to build it from good positions. In a balanced portfolio, the presence of different strategies cannot be absent. Options that decorrelate the portfolio such as investment in alternatives or hedge funds. Our range of equity funds are attractive but you have to keep that construction idea in mind. We invite you to chat with us to help guide you through those steps. Greetings
- Nightingale10. Good morning Alberto, are the recently devalued meta-management funds now prepared for the next rate hikes? Do you think that with the new management team they will return to what they were years ago? Thank you
- 10:59 Good morning, I think I've already answered that question. That devaluation is history and we are in a totally new chapter, and above all, different. Our equity funds are a great way to play the long game. In fact, we are adding new capacities within this change that we are giving to our manager that will allow us to be more versatile and flexible. Undoubtedly, the new management team will seek the best for our and future participants, but being respectful of the previous teams and knowing that the only way to manage intelligently is to be more critical of our failures than our successes. We do not sell smoke but work so definitely yes, we believe that there is a huge room for improvement ahead. Thank you
- Peter11. Hello Alberto. Thank you very much for your attention. Is it time to run away from technology funds?
- 11:04Hello Pere, I'm very skeptical about the rotation of styles. First, because that drags many companies unfairly. And second, because I think that pigeonholing yourself in a specific one, betting everything on it, is a mistake. Our investment process is tremendously eclectic. We do not bet on value or growth, but on the benefits of each one. As Charlie Munger said, it is not possible to find a company that generates value without growth. If by growth we mean only technology companies, we are making a mistake. Just like thinking that the sector is finished. The thing to keep in mind is that overvaluations for a large part of the tech sector were not sustainable and they are correcting. And they've been doing it for a long time, it's not this year. The Nasdaq has been in the distribution phase for many months, but only now does it seem to emerge. Our opinion, for what it's worth, is to have the capacity to diversify the portfolio and seek the best of each style. Our funds of course is what they do. All the best
- Alexander12. What do you think of Enerside? It was announced in the press that it is going to make an IPO to MAB. Do you usually subscribe to IPOs?
- 11:16 Our policy is to manage the liquidity of the positions we have in our portfolio. Regardless of what may have been done historically, in this management company we do not see interest in going to an IPO for many reasons. Moreover, we see notable risks. The MAB is a very interesting market but it is not suitable for our Metavalor fund. This is neither a recommendation nor a criticism of the primary market, it is simply that for a fund of our size, going to the MAB does not make sense. But I insist, there may be super interesting ideas for investors.
- 13. What can I do when I see that my funds are going down every day and also quite a lot of each fund.
- 11:18 Ask yourself two questions. Do I have the proper funds? and Do I have the adviser I need? If the answer is No, you have work ahead of you. I can't really tell you much more. We invite you to contact us in any case to see if we can help you. Greetings
- Raphael14. Good morning, I would like to know his opinion on the renewable energy sector and specifically Solaria and Gamesa. Greetings and thank you very much.
- 11:31 Good morning, Our opinion about the sector is not very positive. We see either very high valuations or companies with very poor fundamentals. Disruption and the renewable theme have not done the sector a favor, leading many companies to impossible valuations or premature IPOs. That is our global vision. In Spain, it also applies, so we are cautious with the bet. In our international fund, the weight is nil. At Gamesa we do not plan to invest. For many reasons we do not trust the company or its model. At Solaria we believe that the evolution of the market, transactions and the improvement of costs and technology, make it more attractive. And we have some presence in the company through Metavalor. It still does not have any fundamentals that shine but it is a very long-term bet, so we do not look so much at the multiples as at the pulls of the business. All the best